Two of South Africa’s most prominent political analysts have weighed in on the mushrooming of new political parties, warning that while the rise of fresh movements reflects democratic vibrancy, it also risks fragmenting the progressive left and weakening challenges to entrenched economic power.

Political analyst Kim Heller told African Times that the proliferation of parties, especially those positioning themselves as progressive and black-led, may ironically strengthen the hand of the establishment rather than disrupt it.

“The rise of progressive, black political parties could be celebrated as an expression of democracy,” Heller said. “But in my view, it actually solidifies the power of the centrist, if not right-wing, because the power of the progressive left is splintered. Parties such as the EFF, MK Party, and potentially Floyd Shivambu’s Mayibuye could be far stronger if they worked together. Instead, fragmentation makes voters reluctant to back smaller parties, which helps reinforce the dominance of the familiar. Ultimately, this splintering will continue to serve the interests of white economic power and white supremacy in South Africa. Unity rather than fragmentation is the right pathway ahead, and it is unfortunate to see the opposite.”

Professor Sipho Seepe echoed concerns, noting that while Floyd Shivambu’s departure from the MK Party and his plans to launch a new political movement may excite some, its survival will depend on whether it offers a compelling and distinct vision.

“Whether South Africa needs another party is not going to be determined by any individual,” Seepe said. “It will depend on the appetite of voters and on whether the new party provides a persuasive proposition. Shivambu has tried to frame his initiative as superior to both the EFF and the MK Party, promising to capture the essence of what they offered while addressing their weaknesses. But it is still early to tell whether he can sell that message. What is clear is that the challenges facing South Africa today are the same as in 1994—poverty, exclusion, and economic marginalisation of Africans. Any new party must show how it will tackle that historic challenge so that being African does not mean being a child of a lesser God.”

New parties flooding the political space

Their warnings come as the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) confirms an unprecedented increase in the number of political parties. IEC chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo revealed that 34 new parties have registered since last year’s general elections, bringing the total to 472 nationally and provincially.

While many are registered, only 18 parties currently hold seats in Parliament. The rest hover on the margins, with most struggling to attract meaningful support in national elections.

Mamabolo said the phenomenon has forced the IEC to adapt, including redesigning the ballot to fit more contestants. In 2024, the commission printed 90 million ballot papers, introducing a dual-column format to accommodate the growing list of parties and independent candidates.

Lessons from COPE, EFF and MK Party
South Africa’s democratic landscape has seen several high-profile breakaway or new parties emerge over the years—some with a burst of energy, others fading quickly. The Congress of the People (COPE) was born in 2008 out of the ANC’s bitter Polokwane split.

Initially hailed as a centrist alternative, it won over 1.3 million votes and 30 parliamentary seats in the 2009 election. However, leadership battles and infighting saw its support collapse in subsequent years. Today, COPE has little more than a symbolic presence.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), founded in 2013 by Julius Malema after his expulsion from the ANC, took a different trajectory. With a radical message of land expropriation and economic freedom, the EFF captured 6.35% of the national vote in 2014, expanding to nearly 11% by 2019. It has entrenched itself as the third-largest party in Parliament, wielding influence far beyond its numbers.

MK Party, launched in late 2023 with former president Jacob Zuma as its figurehead, stunned the establishment in the 2024 elections, emerging as the country’s third-largest party with over 4 million votes. Its success demonstrated both the continued loyalty Zuma commands and the volatility of voter allegiances.

Against this backdrop, Floyd Shivambu’s Mayibuye project seeks to carve a niche. Shivambu, once a founding member and deputy president of the EFF, and later a key strategist in the MK Party, is positioning his movement as a “better” alternative to both. But as analysts caution, history shows that while some splinters survive and thrive, most quickly fade into obscurity.

Women at the centre of the electorate

The IEC’s latest data underscores another crucial factor in the evolving political space: the central role of women voters. Women make up 55% of the 27.6 million registered voters, and in the 2024 general elections, 57% of those who cast ballots were women.

Yet women’s representation in Parliament declined slightly—from 46% in 2019 to 43% after 2024. Analysts suggest that parties ignoring women’s voices and issues do so at their peril.

Fragmentation versus unity

For Heller, the problem is not merely the number of parties but the impact of fragmentation on South Africa’s political trajectory.

“Look at what happened with COPE—at first it looked like an alternative but collapsed into irrelevance. The EFF managed to sustain itself because it had a bold, unique message. The MK Party rose quickly because of Zuma’s personality. Mayibuye faces the same test—will it capture imagination or just split the left further?” she asked.

Seepe added that the fragmentation speaks to a deeper malaise in South Africa’s body politic: the inability of liberation politics to resolve the enduring inequalities of race and class.

“People may have the vote, but economically they remain outsiders. That reality drives new movements. But unless these parties unite around a coherent economic and cultural agenda, they will simply shuffle the deck without changing the game,” he said.

Looking ahead to 2026/27

Preparations are already underway for the 2026/2027 Local Government Elections (LGE). The IEC has begun consultations with the Municipal Demarcation Board to finalise ward boundaries by October 2025, a crucial step before voter registration begins.

By then, some of today’s newly registered parties will have either consolidated or disappeared. The coming municipal polls will serve as an early test for whether movements like Shivambu’s Mayibuye have staying power beyond media headlines.

A crowded field

With 472 registered parties, South Africa has one of the most crowded political landscapes in the world. The ballot may be full, but only a handful of organisations command serious influence.

For now, analysts like Heller and Seepe agree: the real question is not whether new parties will appear—they will—but whether they can deliver unity and a meaningful programme to transform South Africa’s economy and society.

Until then, the mushrooming of new political parties may remain less a sign of democratic strength than of fragmentation—and an opportunity for the old order to persist.